DICK LITTLESTONE, showing his military training, waited
until he had everyone's attention, and then led the Pledge - well
done, DICK. The song (lyricist unknown) was to the tune of Side By
Side, but the words were somewhat less familiar. PP STEVE DAY (substituting
for JACK HARRIS) and keyboarder PP JIM DOWNIE persisted manfully,
however, and all ended well. Birthdays were next (followed by an editorial
suggestion for February, OK?) and leading off was SANDY SANDERSON
- San Antonio, TX, HARLAN LEWIS - Redlands, PP BOB LUSK - Los Angeles,
PP RON LYSTER - Whittier, PAUL SORRELL - Emporia, KS, DAVE MATSON
- Hawthorne, KEN KILPO - Duluth, MN, DENNIS CORNWELL - St. Johns,
MI., and ATHENA JACKSON - Mk, MS. For February, why not consider making
this announcement a bit more fun - perhaps who else was born that
same day (ask PP STEVE DAY) or what event occurred, or what their
favorite color is, or whatever - and YOE is fully aware that this
bit of unsolicited editorial liberty is worth just what YOE is usually
paid for such advice…
PAUL SORRELL, even though burdened with his birthday
fine, then introduced our visiting Rotarian - none other than former
stalwart, BILL BLOOMFIELD JR., now gracing the roster at Manhattan
Beach. (And sporting a new, six-week-old hirsute growth). BOB THOM
spoke for Peggy Bloomfield, while PDG BILL GOODWYN brought along Special
Guest Sherry Dewane. SHARON RHODES-WICKETT was accompanied by husband
AL, and Jane Spencer, who lectures at UCLA, was introduced by PP TOM
LENEHEN. PP JOHN SINGLETON was with Special Guest Joe Monfiletto,
who represents USA Trading. Our Rotary Auxiliary President, Shirley
More, was there in support of our forthcoming Sweetheart Brunch. There
were four Ambassadorial Scholars. LENORE MULRYAN is the Counselor
for Lee Broeckman, who is going to Amsterdam to study International
Journalism, and Amanda Miller will be in Chile studying Latin American
Literature, her Counselor being SUSAN ALLEN. Incoming students are
Vincent Pouyet, from Toulouse, counseled by GEORGE DEA, and Patricia
K.D. (Honest - that's her surname), who was introduced by ANN ELKIN.
BRUCE ROLF made the sad announcement that Barbara Michael, wife of
BILL, passed away suddenly yesterday - funeral plans are pending.
TED IHNEN provided the Thought for the Day, "You cannot
prevent the birds of sorrow from flying overhead - but you can prevent
them from building a nest in your hair".
PP JIM COLLINS, who according to Prexy STEVE, just got
in from Hong Kong, and is leaving later today for London, was rewarded
with a steak dinner for having made the extra effort to attend today!
However, not wanting to charge this to WVRC, STEVE cleverly stipulated
that everyone at JIM'S table would be assessed two bucks to help pay
for this 'reward'. These lucky tablemates were given an opportunity
to leave, but no one took him up on the offer. Let us hope the Sgt.
of Arms got all their names…And speaking of rewards, MIKE YOUSEM invited
all those who participated in the Venice Boys and Girls Club Christmas
Shopping program to check the table, where a number of Thank You cards
were displayed. PP STEVE DAY came forward to award some Paul Harris
Fellowships, and our Resident Angel, VIRGINIA GANDY, was there to
assist. STEVE first reminded us of all the good that a gift of $1,000
can provide -those provided with Fellowships were PAUL SORRELL, SUSAN
ALLEN and Al Rhodes-Wickett. Thank you, VIRGINIA, for your continuing
generosity. PDG ANDY ANDERSON spoke of a recent experience at the
Graduation of new Police Officers from the Academy. One of the new
graduates came up to him, and reminded him that he was now a policeman
because of the Career Day we put on at UniHi. ANDY suggested this
is a program we should once again be sponsoring, and there was general
agreement from the audience. A note from Jeanette Maxwell thanking
Rotary for our flowers and attendance at BILL'S memorial service was
PP JIM DOWNIE snuck up on us with a pitch to attend
Valentine's Day on Feb. 14th at Shanghai Reds in the Marina. Enroute
to this destination he allowed as how "there were probably two music
lovers in the Club", and since he would be providing music that day,
he hoped that would be an additional attraction. JIM is right - it's
a really nice occasion, and if you haven't signed up yet, contact
PETER MORE, please. BOB THOM donated two tickets to the Laker game
tomorrow night, and who stood up but Bill Bloomfield Jr. This purchase
was probably made possible by the lesser lunch cost at Manhattan Beach
- but we still love the Bel Air Hotel!
PP STEVE SCHERER then began the annual presentation
of our Investment Advisors, admitting right away that their forecasts
of a year ago had not been very good. The biggest loser was NASDAQ,
which was down 34.3% from its earlier high, while the DOW dropped
6.2% and S&P was off 10.1%. One year Treasuries went from 5.99 down
to 5.51, and the 30 year from 6.48 to 5.46. The group average prediction
for 2000 was a final of 13K, so they were off by 2,213 points! Whether
this was the reason or not, we had seven Advisors last year, and only
four showed up this year…At this point, STEVE asked for an audience
vote on 2001, with the following results: DOW, up 5 to10%, I year
treasuries down, and 30 year treasuries up slightly.
Next up was LEE DUNAYER, who pointed out that there
was a new rule in effect, stating that companies that expected they
would not be able to meet predicted profit figures by year end had
to so announce in December. A number of firms did so, which mitigated
their actual losses somewhat - but we did have a hard landing anyway.
The Fed rate cut before their monthly meeting was the first such cut
in 23 years, and he expects another l/4 cut soon, with a total cut
of 1% during this year. He feels that earnings are now the most important
criteria, with interest rates also being significant. He does not
expect a recession. His suggested energy stock is Scottish Power,
as a low risk utility. Final, DOW up 13/14%, S&P up l5/l6%, and NASDAQ
STEVE then read a letter from DONN CONNER, who claimed
he was fishing with a big client in Baja. DONN'S chosen stock was
Enron, and he expects the DOW to end at 9725, l year treasuries at
4.75 and 30 years at 5.10.
TODD GURVIS was next up, and his first comment was that
the market is in a state of flux, and he looks for the 2nd half of
the year to be a lot better than the first half. His stock choice
is Duke Power, which is aggressively reinvesting its profits - always
a good sign. He thinks the DOW will go up 12%, the NASDAQ up 10/12%,
and both the one year and thirty year treasuries to go down from their
present point. He reminded us that he takes the long view, and feels
that the deflation in prices has already taken place.
DICK ROBINSON (also by letter) predicts the DOW will
end at 11,000, one year 4.25, thirty year 4.75 and recommends Halliburton
as an energy stock.
LEO TSENG pointed out that this is his 47th year in
this business, and it will be up and down. He predicts the DOW will
be up 8/10%, and suggests watching corporate earnings very closely.
His energy stock is Chevron, which is merging with Texaco.
Finally, back to STEVE - and why all these guys didn't
have enough time to explain their positions, I don't know - but briefly,
STEVE reiterated his prediction of last year that technology developments
will lead the way to major savings for those companies who harness
them properly. The human genome mapping will become a major factor,
and don't forget that you need power (electricity) to run any business.
His stock pick is Enron, and at year-end, DOW 11,500, l year 4.80,
30 year 5.15, with the last half of the year being a good one. Final
thought - "Buy low, sell high"…
And the Thought for the Day, from Ogden Nash - "People
who work sitting down get paid more that people who work standing
up." Ernie Wolfe, YOE.