Post Survey — That is, the FIRST WM after it was dissected.
WVRC January 20th
Despite a slight edge in the vote to shorten the report on what went on, this particular meeting has to be reported as it happened – it was Financial Advisors Day, after all!
However, before we got to that meaty subject, a few housekeeping notes, if I may: Pledge, GORDON FELL. Song, PP STEVE SCHERER, with PP JIM DOWNIE on the piano – The Battle Hymn. Invocation, ED GAULD – and it was Outstanding! ED noted this was Inauguration Day, and pointed out that George Washington, after being sworn in, added “So Help Me God” and kissed the Bible. This phrase and activity has been adopted by every incoming President since. I cannot resist opining that ED always provides some thoughtful comments in his Invocations - please keep it up, ED.
LENORE MULRYAN introduced a Visiting Rotarian, Bill McLaurin, from the Coronado Club – he is in banking. MIKE YOUSEM brought Kurt Smith, who was once a Rotarian, and President RUDY quickly suggested that he had a suggestion as to a Club that Kurt would enjoy…TONY MARRONE had a Special Guest, Craig Dixon. For us UCLA fans, we remember Craig, who earned a bronze in the hurdles at the Olympics in London. And Madame WU’s guest was Joe Barry, a fundraiser with the City of Hope.
What's Happening
February 12th -Sweetheart Brunch at Lawry’s – CHRIS BRADFORD is contact.
February 17th – Centennial Celebration at the Long Beach Hilton – see RUDY
March 5th – Corazon, building a house in Tijuana – KACY ROZELLE
April 28th – May 1st, District Conference at the Doral Desert Princess Resort
In Palm Springs – we’ll have Applications at the meeting next week
Change of Status — Health Report
PDG BILL GOODWYN reported that Judi’s mother, Betty Jo Humiston, passed away this past Monday the 17th. She had been seriously ill for several months, which is why BILL hasn’t been able to attend until today.
LENNY FRIEDMAN had hip replacement surgery, and is at St. Johns.
BOB TROXLER remains at Santa Monica Hospital, but is responding well, and should be leaving the hospital soon.
BRUCE ROLF is still at Berkeley West - send him a card, please.
Rudy's World — A Rich Source of Fines, Apparently
Among those who couldn’t say what the photo showed were GREGG ELLIOTT ($100), DONN CONNOR ($100), CLARK McQUAY (“I have no idea”) (and neither does YOE as to his fine), ELLIOTT TURNER (“It’s somebody going into a Mosque”) (another $100), PP CHRIS GAYNOR (“Can’t help you.”) which netted him a measly ten buck fine, and finally FLOYD DEWHIRST, with the correct answer, RUDY entering St. Sophia Greek Orthodox Cathedral. TURNER, who wouldn’t give up, persisted, saying it looked like a Mosque to him! I guess he figured he had paid his money, so might as well give it another try…
Three members who have made important contributions in service to WVRC were called forward. LENORE MULRYAN continues to oversee and develop our Ambassadorial Scholar program. PDG ANDY ANDERSON is always available for advice, with many useful suggestions. And ERIC LOBERG – was a great Santa, and keeps the background banter going. PP MIKE NEWMAN briefly outlined the upcoming programs for the next two months. They sound very good. And RON LYSTER was publicly thanked for his continuing update of content on our excellent website.
The Program
PP STEVE SCHERER provided an extensive background report on the state of the economy. The stock market posted back-to-back gains for the first time since 1999. (Dow was up 25% in 03, and just 3% in 04) The general expectation is that another increase will take place this year. Interest rates are rising – now at 2.25, and STEVE expects another quarter % rise in June. The unknown factor for 05 is the price of oil.
Last year, by the way, our investment pros predicted the year end for the DOW at 11745, the S&P at 1253, and NASDAQ at 2200. If you had invested $10K in each of the six stocks recommended last year, your year-end worth would be $62,948 – about a 5 % return (and as STEVE noted, that’s before commissions). The members of WVRC were called upon to vote on 2005 – the DOW, up 10 to 15%, S&P, up 5-10%, NASDAQ 5-10% up, and both the l year and 10 year treasuries up, but not much. Our vote in 2004 was about the same as this time.
LEO TSENG fearlessly led off. “It was said that many of you look forward to this program each year – and if that’s true, you lead a very dull life!” He expects the big cap stocks on the S&P to be favored, going up 12% - the DOW to end at 12,000, and NASDAQ up 5%. His stock purchase recommendation is GM.
SHANE WAARBROEK gave his report through LEO. SHANE predicts the DOW to go up 10%, and the ten year treasuries to 5%. His stock purchase recommendation is Walgreen’s – they are the largest drug store chain, and are very competitive in leasing high-traffic areas for their stores.
DICK ROBINSON was unable to attend, but STEVE gave his predictions. The Dow ending at 11,100, S&P at 1265, and NASDAQ at 2250. 1 year treasuries 2.65, ten year at 4.65, and his stock choice was Abbott Glass. When asked for details, he replied, “I just think it’s a good stock!”.
DONN CONNOR was up next. He noted that President RUDY had asked that we not spill any food on the 100th Anniversary brochures which were passed out earlier, and he hoped the same courtesy would be allowed toward today’s panelists He doesn’t know what’s going to happen, and in that case, one always refers to the situation as a Transition Year. The three factors which cause all this uncertainty are the trade deficit, the slide in value of the dollar, and the budget deficit. The trade deficit AND the slide in the dollar may bottom out – but the budget deficit will increase. Specifically, the 1 year ending at 3.8, 10 year at 4.5, S&P up 4% to 1250, DOW, ending at 11,700, and NASDAQ at 2200. His stock pick is AIG, a huge international insurance company and one of the few remaining triple A companies. Ace Greenberg runs it, he is 79 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t begin to eat what we had for lunch today!
LEE DUNAYER stepped forward. He is expecting some dramatic changes. The DOW will be the best performer, but only going up 3%. None of the balance sheets are showing much profit. There should be rising dividends from the old ‘rust-belt’ kinds of stocks. Investments overseas should be looked at. Japan will benefit since they are the major supplier of materials needed in the China buildup. Oil will go down to 40, maybe even 35. l year ending at 3, ten year at 5.05, and commodity prices will go up. Dow ends at 11,000, S&P at 1125, and NASDAQ down 5%. His stock pick is IYK, which is I-Share, a basket of US durables.
Last up was PP STEVE SCHERER. He expects the DOW to end at 11,850, NASDAQ at 2400, and S&P at 1325. The 1 year ends at 3.25, ten year at 4.95, and his stock pick is Medtronics, which of course is heavily in the medical field, which STEVE likes.
Windmill Mailing
Before I close, I have NO ANSWER from the following as to how they want the Windmill delivered: MARK BLOCK, SALLY BRANT, JEFF BRONSTEIN, STEVE DAY, LEE DUNAYER, GREGG ELLIOTT, WALLY FISCHMAN, STEW GILMAN, BILL GOODWYN, URI HERSCHER, HANK HEUER, ED JACKSON, TOM LENEHEN, RICK LIVERMORE, LENORE MULRYAN, MIKE NEWMAN, DAN PRICE, SHARON RHODES-WICKETT, STEVE SCHERER, NEVIN SENKAN, YOSH SETOGUCHI, BOB THOM and MADAME WU. Please tell me, OK?
CATHY REZOS gave the toast, “Prosperity and Wisdom – and using them well”.
