Financial Advisors Day at WVRC, January 25th
Yes, 720 is the number – that’s how many WAPIs we made last Saturday! Those present who we knew included PP DON NELSON, PP RON WANGLIN and Marianne, SLOS VIAU, PP STEVE SCHERER and Debbie, KEVIN KOMATSU, ED GAULD, Prexy MIKE, PP PETER MORE and Shirley, YOE, BRIAN BUMPAS and Patricia, and Pauline Harris. SEEMA PATEL was there with several Rotaractors, and there were a number of students from Marymount. And of course this probably wouldn’t have happened without DEBBIE SHERER, who pioneered WAPI assembling at Marymount, where she teaches.
We began our meeting today with CLAWSON BLEAK leading the Pledge. LENNY came forward to take us through God Bless America, sans (that means without) piano. ART HENRY quoted an earlier visitor to America for the Invocation – “I sought for the greatness and genius of America in her …harbors and rivers, her fields and prairies, her mines and world commerce, and it was not there. Not until I went into the churches of America…did I understand the secret. America is great because she is good – if America ceases to be good, America will cease to be great”. Good words, ART – lets remember them.
We had several visitors. From the Rotary Club of Evanston, Jim Serrillo. David Solo was present, a former member from Oxnard, and is looking for a new home club. MAX LICHTENBERGER brought Anita. LEE DUNAYER brought his partner, Danny Kim. PEGGY BLOOMFIELD came forward for a couple of announcements – our Sweetheart Brunch is set for Saturday Feb 10th at Lawrys. Please get your payment of $45 per person in soon. Another date – our District Conference will be from April 26th to the 29th at the Bahia Resort in San Diego. And a reminder – if you come in late, be sure that PEGGY sees you, since we do need an accurate record of attendance. We were reminded that the Lincoln Remembrance will take place at the Veteran’s Cemetery off Sepulveda at 11 am on Saturday, Feb. 10th. ED GAULD spoke about the Japanese Student Exchange – our kids leave on June 27th for a month, and the Japanese visitors come back with them. He has Registration Forms – this is for students 15 to18, and is an excellent program.
This led to Birthdays. SANDY SANDERSON was first, choosing the 2nd of January, in San Antonio. DOROTHY FERGUS came along on the 7th, in Louisville. Both HARLAN LEWIS and PP RON LYSTER liked the 8th, HARLAN in Redlands, and RON in Whittier. PP BOB LUSK elected the 10th, in LA, while BARRY MARLIN decided on Philadelphia. Sometimes member BOB FLICK calls Buffalo his birthplace, on the 21st, and BRIAN BUMPAS returned us to LA on the 27th. Two notes here, if I may – since you all came from such well known places, there was no need to add the State, and, to the great sadness of Treasurer GORDON FELL, nobody was born on the 25th, so fifty bucks is as much as we can charge them.
Speaking of fines, there were several, which I will attempt to list, hopefully in the right amounts: ELLIOTT TURNER, $20, PP STEVE DAY and PP CHRIS GAYNOR, $10 each, LEE DUNAYER and SEAN McMILLAN, $25 each. No fine, but PP RON LYSTER did some good work for the Library. This was followed by the Joke: Our subject received a free ticket to the Super Bowl, When he got there, he found he was in the last row, deep in the corner – some distance away from the expected action. As he surveyed the crowd, he noticed a single seat, unoccupied, in the 10th row, and on the 50-yard line. He made his way down, and before sitting, asked the man in the next seat if anyone was sitting there. No, he was told – it was empty. As he sat down, he asked, somewhat rhetorically, why no one was using the seat. The man replied that this was the first Super Bowl he had attended without his wife, and they had been coming every year since 1968. Saddened by this news, he asked the man if someone, perhaps a relative, couldn’t have used the seat? “No”, replied the man, “They are all at the funeral.”
PP STEVE SCHERER chaired the Financial Advisors who were to prognosticate (that means predict, I think). PP STEVE first gave a very detailed recap of last year’s predictions, which I’ll summarize by saying he first noted that many people were feeling optimistic about 2007, but perhaps this feeling wasn’t all that realistic. In 2006, the DOW moved up15.6 %, and the S&P500 rose 13.6%. This means the Market has increasing faith in the Fed. Long-term government bonds now yield less than short term, and this has often been a sign of a coming recession.
The panelists included –
DONN CONNER (In Absentia) who is a Money Manager at Reed, Conner and Birdwell.
RICK CULLEN, who is the Portfolio Manager at First Regional Bank.
SHERRY DEWANE (her first time on the panel) is Portfolio Manager of the Trust and Investment Division of Northern Trust.
LEE DUNAYER, a Financial Manager at UBS Financial Services.
DICK ROBINSON, a Registered Investment Advisor
LEO TSENG, a Financial Strategist at Merrill Lynch
SHANE WAARBROEK, a Financial Advisor at Merrill Lynch
and PP STEVE SCHERER, who handles Investments at Scherer, Bradford, Lyster.
In 2006, WVRC members expected the DOW to appreciate by 5%, as would the S&P and NASDAQ. Our Investment Advisors were more bullish, predicting the DOW would end at 11,550 S&P at 1543, and NASDAQ at 2421. They each picked a stock last year, and with a $10K investment in each of the 7, their value at the end of 2006 would be $75,522, for a 7.9% gain.
Now, for 2007, what would WVRC members predict? In the midst of this obviously serious business, STEVE recognized TONY MARRONE – who asked for a glass of iced tea! We suspected the DOW would go up between 5 and 10%. Again, we figured the NASDAQ would go up between 5 and 10%. Same for the S&P. We had a draw on short term interest rates – staying about the same, apparently. More of us expected 10years rates to go up. The transition to the Advisors was again interrupted by an audience discussion of when dessert would be served.
SHERRY DEWANE was first up. Ending 2007, the DOW at 13,411. Nasdaq, 2,640. S&P at 1,524. l year Treasury 5%, 10 year 5.05%.
LEE DUNAYER. He misses Pat Anderson taking copious notes…The economy is compressing, but not dramatically. DOW, 13,000. 1,500 on S&P. Nasdaq 2,600. 4.5% short term, 5% on 10 year Treasuries. He likes the Health Care Spider for a stock.
DICK ROBINSON, DOW 13,090. NASDAQ 2,608. S&P 1,517. Interest rates, both short and 10 year, 4.75%.His stock pick is Abbott Labs.
RICK CULLEN, expects moderate gains across the board. This should lead to an average gain of 5 to 7%. They favor the health care segment, due to its demographic-driven performance. The most money spent on health care is in our last ten years. He likes Sunrise Senior Living as a stock choice. Last advice, “only buy stocks that go up!”
DONN CONNER (in absentia, as noted). There is too much money that needs a home, and that fuels the stock market. DOW 13,900. S&P 1,610. l year treasury 4.75% and 10 year to 4.85.IMS Health (symbol RX).
LEO TSENG, (serious, for a change) He expects slow growth, with the most growth in foreign countries, South America and Brazil in particular. DOW 13,709. NASDAQ 2,777. S&P 1,500. l year Treasury 5%, 10 year 5.15. His stocks are Caremark (CMX) and CVS, which will probably merge.
SHANE WAARBROEK expects all markets to go up 12%. He thinks the Fed will lower interest rates by midyear. His stock pick is Johnson and Johnson – he likes the Blue Chips.
STEVE SCHERER, the DOW at 13,850. NASDAQ 2,715, S&P 1,590. l year Treasury 4.55% and 10 year at 4,75. His stocks are Medtronics and Boston Scientific. He reminded us of his advice of last year – read The World is Flat (which YOE did) and if you haven’t yet, do it now!
And our thanks to all of you. I hope I haven’t messed up your figures too badly.
